RETAIL LOCATION · GIS · URBAN PLANNING
A GIS analysis of 622 standard U.S. warehouses
A widely repeated site-selection number says that a Costco market needs roughly 500,000 people. The number sounds useful, but it leaves out the radius—and the radius changes the answer. We mapped 622 standard U.S. warehouses to see what population, income, road access and store spacing look like around real locations.
Bottom line: The existing U.S. network does not support a universal 500,000-person rule at 10 kilometers (6.2 miles). At 10 miles, however, 500,000 residents is almost exactly the network midpoint. Below that mark, warehouses are generally farther from the next Costco, which is consistent with broader regional coverage.
*555 of the 617 warehouses with a valid Primary Road distance. Five records did not return a road distance. Metric units are retained where they match the national TIGER screening workflow; mile equivalents are supplied in the text.
The 500,000-person question
Costco Japan once published a land-submission page that included a population benchmark of 500,000 people within 10 kilometers. That page is no longer presented as a current public checklist, and it was never evidence of a current U.S. rule. Still, the number has traveled well. It appears in discussions about whether a city is “large enough” for Costco.
That is why the first task was not to decide whether the number was right or wrong. It was to define the distance and compare it with actual warehouses. A population total without a radius is not a market measure. Five hundred thousand people within 6.2 miles describes a different place from 500,000 people within 10 miles.
The national warehouse map
The map below contains the 622 standard warehouses captured from Costco’s U.S. location service on August 28, 2026. Business Centers, a stand-alone gas station and Home Showrooms were excluded so that the locations were more comparable. Select a state or filter warehouses above and below 500,000 people within 10 miles.
Ten kilometers and ten miles
Within 10 kilometers—about 6.2 miles—the median warehouse had 242,032 residents around it. Only 86 of 622 warehouses, or 13.8%, reached 500,000 people. If 10 kilometers were treated as a national pass/fail test, most existing U.S. warehouses would fail it.
At 10 miles, the median rose to 518,254 residents. The number of warehouses above 500,000 rose to 316, or 50.8%. In other words, 500,000 people is close to the middle of the U.S. warehouse network only after the radius expands from 10 kilometers to 10 miles.
The same population threshold, two different radii
Standard U.S. warehouses, 2024 ACS 5-year estimates
86 of 622 above 500,000
316 of 622 above 500,000
This does not prove that Costco uses a 10-mile, 500,000-person rule. It says something narrower and more useful: that combination is close to the observed middle of the present network. It remains a description, not a disclosed decision rule.
Low-density markets and wider spacing
Warehouses with fewer than 500,000 residents within 10 miles were not simply weaker versions of urban locations. They were farther from the next Costco. Their median nearest-neighbor distance was 25.4 kilometers (15.8 miles), compared with 11.2 kilometers (7.0 miles) for warehouses above 500,000.
Median distance to the nearest Costco warehouse
Straight-line distance; not a protected trade area
500,000 or more11.2 km
under 500,00025.4 km
The difference is large even before the extreme markets are considered. Juneau is more than 900 kilometers (roughly 560 miles) from the nearest warehouse in this straight-line calculation. Bismarck, Sioux Falls, Little Rock and Tallahassee also sit more than 200 kilometers (124 miles) from their nearest Costco. These locations cannot be understood by neighborhood population alone.
A warehouse network tied to major roads
Of the 617 warehouses with a valid road-distance result, 555 were within 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) of a road classified by the Census Bureau as a TIGER/Line Primary Road. That is 90.0% of the usable records.
Primary Roads are generally divided, limited-access highways in the Interstate system or under state management. The measure is not the distance to an interchange, and it does not show whether the final intersection or driveway works well. It is a national screening measure of connection to the higher-order road network.
The national pattern is clear enough: a standard warehouse is rarely isolated from a major road. The harder site-level question begins after that finding. Traffic must still pass through an interchange, arterial, signal and driveway before reaching a parking space.
Income above the national middle
The median of the warehouse-level 10-mile household-income estimates was $92,093. The 2024 ACS national median was $80,734. At 450 of 622 warehouses, the estimated 10-mile value was at or above the national median.
Median household income
2024 dollars; warehouse figure is a household-weighted tract estimate within 10 miles
Income matters, but “Costco only builds in wealthy suburbs” is too simple. Gypsum and Juneau have small nearby populations and relatively high incomes. Roseburg and Clarkston have lower incomes and very wide spacing. Dense New York locations combine high population with a site format that looks nothing like a freestanding suburban box. Population, income and network position work together.
Why a circle is not a trade area
A fixed circle is useful because every warehouse is measured with the same ruler. It is not the same thing as a customer trade area. Mountains, water, disconnected roads and congestion decide how much of the circle is actually reachable.
We therefore calculated 30-, 45- and 60-minute road-network populations for a descriptive sample of 30 warehouses. The sample median was about 590,000 people at 30 minutes, 1.63 million at 45 minutes and 2.16 million at 60 minutes. Weatherford, Texas, had about 86,000 people within 10 miles but nearly 598,000 within the modeled 30-minute network. Gypsum, Colorado, moved in the opposite direction: geography limited the road-reachable market.
Modeled population within driving time
Median of a descriptive 30-warehouse sample
Those figures are model results, not observed travel times or customer origins. They exclude live traffic and were not calculated for all 622 warehouses. Their value is in showing why two sites with similar circular populations may not function as similar markets.
A market still needs a buildable site
Market numbers explain why a region may be interesting. They do not make a parcel buildable. A warehouse, parking, fuel, truck circulation, stormwater and road access require a large, continuous site and a local approval path.
URBAN ADAPTATION
East River Plaza · Manhattan
A 6.3-acre former industrial site became a multi-level retail project. The approval package included rezoning, special permits, street-map changes, city-owned land and access work near the FDR Drive. Costco occupies an urban format within a larger structure rather than a standard suburban pad.
NYC Planning Commission reportENTITLEMENT DEPTH
El Dorado Hills · California
The proposed project has required planned-development and conditional-use review, a sign variance, infrastructure-service actions and environmental review. County materials examine 19 intersections. Commercial zoning did not end the entitlement process.
California CEQAnet recordREGIONAL ROAD REACH
Weatherford · Texas
A small 10-mile population sits beside Interstate 20 and a much larger modeled drive-time market. The City’s current development map identifies a 23.80-acre Costco Addition completed in 2025; budget records describe the I-20 tax-increment district used for road and infrastructure investment.
City development mapThese cases do not provide a recipe for recruiting Costco. They show the division of labor. A company chooses among markets; local planning and infrastructure determine whether a specific site can receive the project. A city can remove a land-use or infrastructure constraint without creating the underlying market demand.
What the 622-warehouse pattern says
The U.S. warehouse network does not support a universal “500,000 people within 10 kilometers” rule. It does show that 500,000 people within 10 miles sits near the middle of the current network.
Below that level, warehouses tend to be spaced farther apart. Most warehouses are close to the national Primary Road network. Warehouse markets also lean above the national household-income median. None of those variables works as a stand-alone opening forecast.
A more defensible site-screening sequence is:
- population and household income at more than one radius;
- road-network reach rather than a circle alone;
- distance and overlap with existing warehouses;
- a continuous site that can hold the full operating program; and
- zoning, environmental review, traffic operations and infrastructure.
That sequence is less satisfying than a single cutoff. It is also much closer to what the existing warehouse map shows.
Need the methods or warehouse-level data? Continue to the technical appendix for definitions, calculations, the 30-warehouse drive-time sample, limitations and the downloadable 622-warehouse screening table.
Frequently asked questions
Does Costco require 500,000 people before it will open a warehouse?
No public U.S. rule establishing that cutoff was found. In this observed network, 500,000 residents is near the median only when measured within 10 miles. It is not a disclosed approval criterion.
Why compare 10 kilometers with 10 miles?
The 10-kilometer number appeared in a historical Costco Japan land-submission context, while U.S. market discussions commonly use miles. Comparing both with the same 622 warehouses demonstrates how strongly a population threshold depends on its radius.
Can this analysis predict the next Costco opening?
No. It is a benchmark for screening and comparison. It does not contain Costco’s sales forecasts, member origins, real-estate pipeline, lease terms or internal network strategy.
What should a city or developer test first?
Begin with population and income at multiple radii, then test drive-time reach and overlap with existing warehouses. Only after the market screen should a team invest deeply in parcel capacity, entitlement, traffic and infrastructure work.
Sources and date
- Costco Warehouse Locations, captured August 28, 2026
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 ACS 5-Year Estimates, B19013
- 2024 TIGER/Line Primary Roads
- Costco 2025 Form 10-K
- New York City Planning Commission, East River Plaza report
- California CEQAnet, El Dorado Hills Costco Draft EIR record
- City of Weatherford, current nonresidential developments map
- City of Weatherford, FY2022 Adopted Budget (TIRZ section)
PART II · TECHNICAL APPENDIX
Methods, distributions and downloadable data
The main article ends above. Continue here for the analytical scope, formulas, warehouse-level distributions, planning evidence, limitations and the downloadable 622-location dataset.
What this report answers: how population, a household-income proxy, national major-road proximity and nearest-warehouse spacing are distributed around the 622 standard locations in the snapshot.
What it cannot answer: why Costco approved an individual site, how much a warehouse sells, where members live or which market will open next.
Technical summary
This report examines 622 standard U.S. Costco warehouses using a location-service snapshot, 2024 American Community Survey data, 2024 TIGER/Line roads, nearest-neighbor spacing and a descriptive 30-warehouse drive-time sample. The median population was 242,032 within 10 kilometers and 518,254 within 10 miles. Only 13.8% of warehouses exceeded 500,000 residents at 10 kilometers, compared with 50.8% at 10 miles.
Warehouses below 500,000 residents within 10 miles had a median nearest-Costco distance of 25.4 kilometers, versus 11.2 kilometers above the threshold. The warehouse-level median of the 10-mile household-income estimates was $92,093, compared with a national ACS median of $80,734. Among 617 warehouses with a road-distance result, 555, or 90.0%, were within 5 kilometers of a TIGER Primary Road.
The analysis supports a combined reading of market depth, network spacing, road access, land capacity and entitlement. It does not support a single national population cutoff.
Research question
The analysis began with a precise but incomplete number: 500,000 people. A historical Costco Japan land-submission page paired that number with a 10-kilometer radius. The page is not evidence of a current U.S. standard. It is used here as a testable proposition: how many present U.S. warehouses meet 500,000 people at 10 kilometers, and how does the result change at 10 miles?
Four additional questions follow:
- Are lower-density warehouses farther from another Costco?
- How often are warehouses close to a nationally comparable major-road layer?
- How do warehouse-area income estimates compare with the national median?
- What land-use and infrastructure actions appear in contrasting site cases?
Warehouse scope
The August 28, 2026 Costco U.S. location-service snapshot contained 655 sales-location records. The analysis excluded 26 Business Centers, one stand-alone gas station and six Home Showrooms, leaving 622 standard warehouse records. Puerto Rico is retained within the U.S. location-service scope.
This count should not be substituted for the fiscal-year warehouse total in Costco’s Form 10-K. The corporate filing and the location-service snapshot have different dates and category scopes. The 2025 Form 10-K reported 629 membership warehouses in the United States and Puerto Rico as of August 31, 2025; that total includes formats excluded from the standard-warehouse screening used here.
Data and measurement
Area-weighted population
For each circle, intersecting census tracts were assigned by area share. If 40% of a tract’s area fell inside the circle, 40% of its population and households were assigned to the circle. This is more consistent than including an entire tract when its centroid falls inside, but it still assumes an even distribution within each tract.
Household-weighted income proxy
ACS table B19013 provides tract median household income. Medians cannot be aggregated exactly from published tract medians. The report therefore weights each tract median by the estimated number of intersecting households. The resulting value is useful for screening but should be labeled as a household-weighted tract-median estimate.
Road and spacing measures
TIGER Primary Roads generally represent divided limited-access highways in the Interstate system or under state management. The layer can contain classification gaps. A short distance to the line does not prove direct access, interchange capacity or an acceptable truck route.
Nearest-neighbor spacing is a network-separation measure. It does not identify a protected trade area, and straight-line distance can be misleading around water or mountain barriers.
Fixed-radius population
Ten-kilometer result
The median 10-kilometer population was 242,032. Eighty-six warehouses, or 13.8%, met or exceeded 500,000 residents. This result rejects the historical 10-kilometer benchmark as a general description of the U.S. standard-warehouse network.
Ten-mile result
The median 10-mile population was 518,254. Three hundred sixteen warehouses, or 50.8%, met or exceeded 500,000 residents. The threshold is therefore close to the observed median only when the radius is approximately 16.1 kilometers.
Population threshold sensitivity
Number and share of 622 standard warehouses
Warehouse spacing
The 306 warehouses below 500,000 residents within 10 miles had a median nearest-warehouse distance of 25.35 kilometers. The 316 warehouses at or above 500,000 had a median of 11.15 kilometers. The all-warehouse median was 14.79 kilometers.
Fifty-four warehouses were more than 100 kilometers from the next standard Costco in the file. Alaska and island geography account for some extremes, but wide spacing also appears in inland markets such as Bismarck, Sioux Falls, Wichita and Billings.
Household income
The warehouse-level median of the 10-mile household-income estimates was $92,093. The 2024 ACS national median was $80,734. Four hundred fifty warehouses, or 72.3%, had a 10-mile estimate at or above the national median.
This comparison does not establish a corporate income cutoff. It does show that the network is tilted toward markets with above-median household income. The result should be read with the estimator’s limits: tract medians were weighted by households, and population inside tracts was allocated by area.
Primary-road proximity
Primary Road distance was available for 617 warehouses. The median distance was 0.544 kilometer, and 555 warehouses were within 5 kilometers. Five warehouses lacked a valid result and are excluded from the 90.0% calculation.
The finding is descriptive. Primary Road proximity cannot substitute for a traffic-impact study. The final approach may include congested arterials, closely spaced signals, insufficient turn storage or a driveway that conflicts with truck circulation.
Drive-time sample
Thirty warehouses were selected as a descriptive, stratified sample rather than a probability sample. The modeled median population was 590,026 at 30 minutes, 1,627,606 at 45 minutes and 2,159,346 at 60 minutes. Sixteen of 30 exceeded 500,000 residents within 30 minutes; 21 exceeded one million within 60 minutes.
The median ratio of 30-minute population to 10-mile population was 1.98. Weatherford reached 6.93, while Juneau and Gypsum showed how disconnected or constrained road networks can produce a drive-time population smaller than the fixed-radius count.
Valhalla used a current public OSM-derived road graph and modeled speeds. Live traffic, opening-date roads, toll preferences and actual member behavior are not included.
Selected market contrasts
| Warehouse | Location | 10-mile population | 10-mile income ($) | Primary Road (km) | Nearest Costco (km) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhattan | New York, NY | 7,222,258 | 85,129 | 0.07 | 3.2 |
| Weatherford | Weatherford, TX | 86,215 | 113,338 | 0.25 | 31.3 |
| Gypsum | Gypsum, CO | 12,611 | 114,072 | 1.68 | 152.4 |
| Juneau | Juneau, AK | 20,208 | 95,875 | N/A | 911.5 |
| Warrenton | Warrenton, OR | 26,645 | 75,265 | 77.98 | 101.1 |
| Bismarck | Bismarck, ND | 112,445 | 81,853 | 3.72 | 295.3 |
| El Paso | El Paso, TX | 549,278 | 55,243 | 0.11 | 365.5 |
| Rego Park | Rego Park, NY | 7,692,903 | 86,193 | 0.12 | 7.4 |
Manhattan and Rego Park represent the extreme high-density end. Gypsum and Juneau sit at the low-population end but have relatively high estimated household income. Weatherford combines a small fixed-radius market with Interstate access and a much larger modeled drive-time population. No single variable orders these markets cleanly.
Planning and infrastructure cases
East River Plaza, Manhattan
The New York City Planning Commission described a 6.3-acre former industrial site assembled across portions of three blocks. The project included approximately 475,000 square feet of retail, a 1,248-car accessory parking facility and major tenants expected to include Costco and Home Depot.
The approval path included rezoning, a general large-scale development special permit, parking approval, City Map changes, city-owned land disposition and access improvements near the FDR Drive. The case shows how a dense market can support a warehouse while requiring a nonstandard, multi-level urban form and a broad entitlement package.
El Dorado Hills, California
The proposed El Dorado Hills project has been reviewed through planned-development and conditional-use procedures, a sign variance, infrastructure-service actions and CEQA environmental review. County materials describe a warehouse of roughly 165,000 square feet, 831 parking spaces, a 32-position fuel facility and operations analysis for 19 intersections.
Commercial land-use designation did not settle the project. Traffic operation, vehicle miles traveled, grading, utilities, fire service, signage and site design remain separate questions. As of the August 2026 research date, the case had not been treated as an approved opening in this report.
Weatherford, Texas
Weatherford’s 10-mile population was about 86,000, while its modeled 30-minute population was about 598,000. City records identify a 23.80-acre Costco Addition and describe early infrastructure delivery for the development. The I-20 tax-increment reinvestment zone provides a corridor-level framework for road and infrastructure investment.
The case does not show that public infrastructure created the market by itself. It shows a large road-reachable market and a local capacity to make the specific site serviceable.
Financial disclosure and site analysis
Costco’s 2025 Form 10-K reported 914 warehouses worldwide and average sales of $272 million per warehouse. The 24 warehouses opened in 2025 averaged an annualized $192 million in their first year. Earlier opening cohorts generally rose over subsequent fiscal years.
Those figures describe cohorts, not individual locations. They do not provide warehouse-level revenue, profit, membership or customer-origin data. This report therefore does not estimate individual warehouse performance from population or income. The GIS measures describe location context; the Form 10-K describes the scale and maturation of the warehouse format.
State distribution
View the state-by-state warehouse table
| State | Warehouses | Median 10-mile population |
|---|---|---|
| CA | 134 | 666,874 |
| TX | 47 | 634,162 |
| FL | 35 | 584,895 |
| WA | 33 | 416,266 |
| IL | 23 | 781,305 |
| NJ | 20 | 764,962 |
| NY | 20 | 1,277,977 |
| AZ | 19 | 799,703 |
| MI | 18 | 445,168 |
| GA | 17 | 481,309 |
| VA | 17 | 483,491 |
| UT | 16 | 411,388 |
| CO | 15 | 640,700 |
| MN | 14 | 526,900 |
| OH | 13 | 454,416 |
| OR | 13 | 295,605 |
| PA | 12 | 434,050 |
| WI | 12 | 250,410 |
| MD | 11 | 761,244 |
| NC | 10 | 446,622 |
| IN | 9 | 420,818 |
| CT | 8 | 398,026 |
| MO | 8 | 462,255 |
| NV | 8 | 824,732 |
| TN | 8 | 300,252 |
| HI | 7 | 297,643 |
| ID | 7 | 146,105 |
| MA | 7 | 707,501 |
| SC | 7 | 304,078 |
| AL | 5 | 283,131 |
| MT | 5 | 98,825 |
| AK | 4 | 147,514 |
| IA | 4 | 220,196 |
| KY | 4 | 400,408 |
| LA | 4 | 338,984 |
| NE | 4 | 524,199 |
| OK | 4 | 458,513 |
| PR | 4 | 757,432 |
| KS | 3 | 684,488 |
| NM | 3 | 562,668 |
| ND | 2 | 167,758 |
| AR | 1 | 264,450 |
| DC | 1 | 1,847,206 |
| DE | 1 | 476,155 |
| ME | 1 | 214,169 |
| MS | 1 | 221,549 |
| NH | 1 | 401,281 |
| SD | 1 | 232,725 |
| VT | 1 | 142,102 |
State counts reflect the location-service snapshot and the report’s standard-warehouse exclusions. They are not fiscal-year segment totals.
Interpretation
The 622-warehouse pattern is most consistent with a sequence rather than a cutoff:
- Market depth: population and income at several radii.
- Network position: road reach and spacing from existing warehouses.
- Site capacity: enough continuous land for the warehouse, parking, fuel, stormwater, trucks and circulation.
- Entitlement: zoning, use permits, environmental review and site-plan approval.
- Traffic and infrastructure: interchange, arterial, signal, driveway, water, sewer and public-service capacity.
A market may satisfy the first two steps and still lack a feasible site. A parcel may satisfy zoning and still sit in an overlapping or undersized market. Existing locations show combinations of conditions, not a national formula.
Limitations
- The location-service snapshot may differ from corporate fiscal-year counts and can change after publication.
- Area weighting assumes population and households are evenly distributed within census tracts.
- The income measure is a weighted proxy built from tract medians.
- TIGER Primary Road distance is not interchange distance, route distance or road capacity.
- Nearest-neighbor spacing is straight-line distance and does not measure competitive overlap.
- The 30-warehouse isochrone set is descriptive and cannot estimate a national confidence interval.
- The analysis has no warehouse-level sales, profit, members, visit frequency or customer-origin data.
- Planning cases explain approvals at selected sites and should not be generalized as Costco policy.
Download and reproducibility
Download the 622-warehouse screening table (CSV)
The downloadable table contains derived screening estimates. Preserve the field definitions and limitations when quoting or reusing it.
The CSV is keyed by the warehouse identifier returned by Costco’s location service. Coordinates and warehouse labels come from the August 28, 2026 snapshot; population and income fields are derived from the 2024 ACS 5-year tract release; road proximity uses 2024 TIGER/Line S1100 Primary Roads; nearest-warehouse fields are calculated within the 622-location standard-warehouse file.
Reproduction requires the dated source snapshot and the same exclusion rules. A later live query may return a different location count, name or status and should not be silently mixed with this release.
Primary sources
- Costco Warehouse Locations
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 ACS 5-Year Estimates, B19013
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 TIGER/Line Primary Roads
- 2024 TIGER/Line Technical Documentation
- Costco Wholesale Corporation, 2025 Form 10-K
- New York City Planning Commission, East River Plaza special permit report
- California CEQAnet, El Dorado Hills Costco Draft EIR record
- El Dorado County, EDH Costco FAQ
- City of Weatherford, current nonresidential developments map
- City of Weatherford, FY2022 Adopted Budget (TIRZ section)
